ABSTRACT
This article anticipates the puzzle of acquiring a three-dimensional inhomogeneous site percolation on an irregular Bethe Lattice (TDIBL). In this work, we explore a TDIBL with the intent to realize the right tradeoff among different percolating variates, namely, cluster size distribution (CSD), critical occupation probability (COP), percolating probability (PP), and mean cluster size (MCS). The variates results are acquired using the generating function (GF) and generalized recursive approaches (GRA). The findings revealed that, for inhomogeneous site percolation (ISP) on the proposed model, the high fraction of probabilities (occupation and distribution probabilities) boosts the intensity of the process, which will enlarge the mean degree of the system in the percolation process. Moreover, numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis will also enhance our understanding of the percolating process via 2D and 3D. Their corresponding shape profiles of earned findings are drawn to perceive their dynamics amongst the options of entailed parameters. Furthermore, exhausting the above scheme, we discuss the transmission behavior of the novel corona-virus 2019 (COVID-19) and present particular disease-control schemes courtesy of groups with numerous infection probabilities and find the effect according to the age distribution. We recognize that this endeavor is timely, that it will be about curiosity, and that it will include scientists working with diverse percolation approaches.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detected by researchers from a patient in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, and broke out in January 2020. Then, the pandemic was detected in countries around the world. Therefore, precise estimates of its current and future trends are highly required for future policy implications. METHODS: We retrieved data from the Health Commission of Hubei, China. Logistic-S curve model was used to estimate the current and future trends of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases among 16 cities of Hubei, China from Jan-11 to Feb-24, 2020. RESULTS: Out of 64,287 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hubei, higher percentage of cases were in Wuhan and Xiaogan. The highest death percentage was found in Wuhan and Qianjiang. A significant percentage of cures were found in Enshi Prefecture and Huanggang, while Wuhan showed the lowest percentage of cures. Rising trends in infected cases were observed throughout the study period, particularly in Wuhan, and a higher trend was observed after 12-Feb. Gradual decline trend of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed during Feb-25 to Mar-15 in Hubei Province. Future forecast showed that the average number of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases might be decreased or stable in Hubei in the coming 20 days. CONCLUSION: The public must take precautionary measures in order to control and prevent disease spread and avoid extra travelling.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a severe public health problem around the globe. Various epidemiological, statistical, and laboratory-based studies have shown that the role of temperature and other environmental factors has important influence in the transmission of coronaviruses. Scientific research is needed to answer the questions about the spread and transmission of the infection, whether people could be avoided from being infected with COVID-19 in next summer. AIM: We aim to investigate the association of daily average temperature, daily average dew point, daily average humidity, daily average wind speed, and daily average pressure with the infection caused by this novel coronavirus in Pakistan. KEY FINDINGS: First, we check the correlation between environmental factors and daily infected cases of COVID-19; among them, temperature and dew point have positive linear relationship with daily infected cases of COVID-19. The thought-provoking findings of the present study suggested that higher temperature and dew point can contribute to a rise in COVID-19 disease in four provinces of Pakistan, possible to genome modifications and viral resistance to harsh environment. Moreover, it is also observed that humidity in Punjab and Sindh, and wind speed in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have influenced the spreading of daily infected COVID-19 cases. SIGNIFICANCE: Current study will serve as a guideline to develop understanding of environmental factors that influence COVID-19 spread, helping policymakers to prepare and handle a catastrophe resulting from this pandemic.